Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Groundwater Pollution Vulnerability in Shallow Coastal Aquifers

The impact of rising sea levels on surface flooding (coastal inundation) has been thoroughly explored for low-lying metropolitan areas. Less understood, however, is the impact that rising sea levels will have on groundwater levels. We will evaluate potential impacts using various Geographic Information System (GIS) methodologies and gridless groundwater flow models that have been applied in other regional studies. To identify areas of concern, we propose to utilize (1) digital elevation model based topographic analysis, (2) available groundwater level databases, (3) hazardous waste and environmental spatial datasets, (4) gridless groundwater flow models, (5) logistic regression analysis of water quality data, and (6) demographic and socio-economic spatial datasets to identify disadvantaged communities. GIS analyses will be run on all low-lying coastal regions of California, and detailed studies will be conducted on two representative low-lying coastal communities (e.g. Oxnard Plain, San Francisco Bay Areas). The project will team experts in GIS, demography, physical hydrology, and groundwater chemistry to identify potential areas of concern both for rising groundwater in general and more specifically, for vulnerable disadvantaged populations. These areas will be ranked according to severity and immediacy as a basis for regulators to prioritize management and planning efforts in the face of rising sea levels